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Dear readers,
As many of you perhaps are aware, the past elections where the communist gang lost were stolen.
There is now a legal void, and every single decision they make will backfire on their faces once things are solved.
That legal void is a potentially dangerous situation for civilians.
This is the reason to explain what is happening, so you can realize the most possible scenario. If you want to see what we can face in the next few days, go to the second half of this article below.
It´s sad how this has affected my kid and his friends´ minds.
He says that some kids mentioned they´re afraid to be kidnapped by the masked guys roaming around in unidentified trucks.
I told him not to walk alone, never…and reminded him that hitting hard with hard parts, bone-to-organ, and running is the best action, given the case. Yes, I´m that kind of guy. Rather face those guys on my doorstep to fight with claw and teeth, than lose track of my only offspring.
The bus driver got sworn in last Friday to show off institutional strength and control. Surely this is going to blow back right in their face.
What will be in our immediate future?
Some experts and political scientists propose the possible scenarios described below. These are:
- Maduro is sworn in and remains in power (the less possible, in my opinion)
The scenario where the bus driver continues to govern the country for a third term is unlikely. There are too many millions of civilians presenting a firm opposition to the Party and their unconstitutional behavior. This amount includes many millions of ex-followers by the way.
Chavismo (this is how the “revolutionary” members like to be named) prepared “a great platform” of military, police, and sympathizers (with organized crime called “colectivos” in the popular jargon) that allowed him to be sworn in before the legislative power in Caracas despite the internal and external controversy over the election results of July, observes political scientist Leandro Rodríguez Linárez. “Force is about imposing,” he notes.
- President González Urrutia is imprisoned
The government has warned that it will arrest González Urrutia if he returns to the country. In November, the head of the Party and most public party exponent (with a 10 million dollar reward on his head), Diosdado C., showed on television some handcuffs as a “gift” for him, promising to put them on him if he dares to return to the country. “These are real,” he said. The opposition leader declared himself “morally prepared” for an arrest scenario upon arriving in Venezuela in November, anticipating that there would be “a standoff” in the country.
Several countries condemned the arrest request in September. The US State Department said that his detention would be an “arbitrary and politically motivated action,” as well as “a low point in Nicolás Maduro’s ruthless persecution of his political opponents after stealing the elections.”
- President González Urrutia governs from abroad (this has been ruled out by the President himself)
A controversial scenario for the opposition would be if Edmundo González Urrutia were sworn in as Venezuelan president from abroad. This possibility would probably cause divisions among anti-Chavez parties due to the little or no influence the opposition leader would have on the country’s internal affairs: the armed thugs would do their thing and get into prison to anyone the Party leaders, like Cabello and Rodriguez choose to target. Mind you, the modus operandi is the same used by many organized gangs: political kidnappings to collect hostages and use them as bargain chips.
“There is no possibility of a government in exile or anything like that,” says political scientist Molina Galdi.
….And the most statistically possible outcome is…
- A nationwide strike in Venezuela, at all levels.
This is what has been cooking for a while out on the streets. I know because I´ve traveled half of the country and listening (these days you can´t talk too much, but listening will give you payloads of intel) would represent a turning point in the complex sociopolitical dynamics that the country is going through. This protest measure, which would paralyze key sectors such as the economy, production, and services, would have far-reaching implications, both in the short and long term. This paper aims to analyze the possible scenarios that would be triggered by such an event, as well as its consequences in various areas of national life.
The coming strategy (based on strong rumors and I apologize for this) will seemingly need a huge crowd on the streets. Mind you I have been allergic to crowds (especially this type of crowds) since 1989 if you have read my other articles.
We expect a total blackout, for God knows how many days. Probably our acquaintances with minimarkets with food will keep selling until they can´t. As far as I know, many butcher owners in my town do have generators, but hardly enough fuel for a couple of days. BIG mistake. You can´t trust in the grid when your investment is in a freezer room. Those with a generator better plan for 15-20 days in a row without power. It has worked to keep Cuba crushed under the despotism so far. They even clap when power arrives. How sad is that?
Expected Economic Impact
I lived through something similar already back in 2003. An abrupt drop in an already decreased production: the paralysis of activities in sectors such as industry, agriculture, and commerce would generate an unprecedented economic contraction, aggravating the crisis already suffered by the country. In the worst possible moment for us, as a family group, dealing with unexpected health issues of both our elders.
We are looking for income from different sources, but getting even the minimum amount to invest and get some profit is uphill. Most of the people in my town are experiencing similar situations. The best positioned are those importing foods. This requires complete fortunes to deal with the customs monkey business.
A widespread paralysis would be a disaster, with our pantry in its current state (and in debt now!). The only thing I can think of is getting the cheapest meat cuts, salt and dry them up, and stockpile beans, rice, seasonings, eggs, yeast, sugar, coffee, and some oatmeal (my kid and dad like it a lot and it´s quite filling) and flour. Basically that. Forget about fresh fruits and vegetables once the delivery trucks stop arriving unless you have some fuel stashed and can go to the countryside with cash. The trucks transporting food will likely be looted (“confiscated”). Saw it happening. No producer will risk his hard-earned profit this way. Another possible outcome is that they start forcing the people in the countryside to surrender their products. This is highly stressful, as we don´t have any preps. The only ones in this family with this mind setup are my kid, and myself. The others don´t seem to care and are confident that nothing like this will ever happen. Even after what they lived back in the lapse 2015-2021.
The thing is like this. Once food stops arriving at the capital city, people will get desperate and start the street flooding. Very well-directed and hopefully more organized this time.
Of course, this will trigger a domino effect. My take is, with unpredictable consequences, indeed.
They laughed at me in my family when I mentioned the possibility of asking the neighbor for some space for laying hens…” Do you think we´re in North Korea or what??”. Now, we can barely afford eggs. Go figure. Sometimes, I wonder how sharing genes can make people so different.
Increased inflation: The scarcity of goods and services, as a result of the strike, could drive an inflationary spiral that would further erode our purchasing power. Jeez, I remember some guys making fortunes selling rum bottles at twice or three times their value. Some guys were so desperate for a drink!. This inflationary process shouldn´t happen with the amount of foreign currency circulating though.
Deterioration of the productive apparatus: The prolongation of the strike could cause irreversible damage to infrastructure and productive capital, making it difficult to reactivate the economy in the medium and long term. The concerning part of this is that you know when and how it starts, but never know how it could end. We already have seen producers migrating. And that is BAD.
Institutional crisis: The paralysis of institutions and the breakdown of public order could generate an institutional crisis that would jeopardize the country’s governance. Nothing new: this has been happening for a long time. Hugo generated a profound division with his hate speech, and the public workers not agreeing with his rules, faced harassment and prosecution in the public administration. Ask me how I know it.
The important part here is, based on an analysis as a prepper, the consequences of all this on the street level. Most of us are not living in isolation, and such consequences have a deep impact on us. Even the most self-reliant and independent hardcore homesteader sooner or later is forced to have some level of interaction with others.
So far our main concern is the high cost of medicines for our father, over 80 years old with heart issues, and the non-existent social security system. But we are together. Both grandparents are happy to see their only grandson becoming an awesome little man with them rather than spend their senior years wondering if they will see him again in their lifetime. Worths the effort!
I look forward to hearing your comments!
Stay safe, keep tuned, and thanks for your awesome support!
About Jose
Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has an old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Jose and his younger kid are currently back in Venezuela, after the intention of setting up a new life in another country didn’t go well. The SARSCOV2 re-shaped the labor market and South American economy so he decided to give it a try to homestead in the mountains, and make a living as best as possible. But this time in his own land, and surrounded by family, friends and acquaintances, with all the gear and equipment collected, as the initial plan was.
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